Blackstone Advisory Partners’ Byron Wien has released his annual list of “Surprises” for 2013, and as always he has some intriguing possibilities on the list.
Wien (who defines a “surprise” as an event which the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which he believes has a better than 50% likelihood of happening) offers several potential surprises that involve the economy and stock market. “A profit margin squeeze and limited revenue growth cause 2013 earnings for the Standard & Poor’s 500 to decline below $100, disappointing investors,” he writes in discussing one of them. “The S&P 500 trades below 1300. Companies complain of limited pricing power in a slow, highly competitive world economic environment.”
He also sees financial stocks have a tough time amid intense competition in commercial and investment banking, low trading volumes, increases in regulation, and lawsuits.
Chinese stocks will probably rise more than 20%, however, Wien adds, as “the new leaders in China seem determined to implement reforms to root out corruption, to keep the economy growing at 7% or better and to begin to develop improved health care and retirement programs.”
To read all of Wien’s potential surprises, click here. For the record, six of his 10 surprises from 2012 came true.