Bill Miller of Legg Mason, a value investor with a strong record, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that it is “sort of hard to see why anyone would buy a 10-year Treasury when they could own the broader market at a higher current yield.” He sees “a disconnect between what’s really going on and what the markets are reacting to,” citing “strength in homebuilding,” “70% of companies are beating earnings estimates,” and other signs of a strong U.S. economy. Further, he stated a clear value position: “lower prices mean higher future rates of return.” Regarding oil, he commented: “historically, oil has had a negative 85% correlation with the stock market . . . and every recession since 1970 has been caused by higher oil prices, but today we have a 95-100% positive correlation . . . people make up a story to talk about that, [but] lower oil prices are unequivocally good for the U.S.” He also noted that “when the market hit its low, every major homebuilder [except one] was on the 52-week low list. Now I can assure you that nothing that’s going on in China is affecting homebuilders” and oil prices have little effect, providing further evidence that now is a good time to buy due to low valuations.
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