The seven most successful market-timing newsletters are all bullish, writes MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert, who tracks investment newsletters’ performance at his Hulbert Financial Digest.
Hulbert says he searched his database for newsletters that outperformed buy-and-hold strategies in the 2000-2002 bear market, the current bear market, and the bull market that occurred in between. He found that just seven of the almost 200 newsletters he tracks have beaten the market in all three of those separate periods — and all seven of those newsletters are now buying stocks, with an average recommended domestic equity exposure of 91%.
The newsletters include:
The Blue Chip Investor: It says that stocks are in the “Very Undervalued” category, the lowest valuation level in the past three decades. The newsletter’s model portfolio is close to fully invested in stocks.
Bob Brinker’s Marketimer: Recently stated that “the final bottom for the cyclical bear market was registered with the series of benchmark closing lows that occurred in early March on reduced trading volume”. Brinker recommends subscribers be fully invested in stocks, Hulbert says.
Eric Kobren’s Fidelity Insight: It is “moderately bullish” and said two weeks ago that the “overall picture of a market in the midst of a bottoming process, if perhaps not yet at the actual bottom, remains intact.” Hulbert says the average recommended domestic equity exposure in its equity-oriented model portfolios is 78%.
Fidelity Independent Adviser: Says that if investors remain optimistic, the rally won’t get derailed until the economy deteriorates — which may not happen given the government’s massive efforts to stabilize the economy. Its equity-oriented model portfolios are fully invested, Hulbert says.
Fidelity Sector Investor: It is “hopeful and cautious that the bottoming process is well underway”, though it expects a 10% to 15% correction of the rally that began on March 9. Its equity-oriented model portfolios are fully invested.
Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors: It’s moderately bullish, and its equity-oriented model portfolios have an average recommended domestic equity exposure of 73%.
Investor’s Guide to Closed-End Funds: Its model portfolio that focuses on the U.S. equity market is 88% invested, Hulbert says.