The Uniqueness of the Current Bull Market According to S&P’s Stovall

Sam Stovall, Managing Director of US Equity Strategy for S&P Global Market Intelligence, writes that “this is one of the few times in which history might not even be a good guide . . . due to the limited number of times bull markets have made it this far.” He notes that “assuming this 12th bull market since WWII is still alive, it has lasted 84 months, vs. the average age of 56 months” and “rose 215% through its May 21, 2015 all-time high, vs. an average of 144% for all bulls.” Further, “this bull market took much less time [49 months] to reach equilibrium” after the 2007-09 “mega-meltdown” than the prior bull markets that followed the only two other mega-meltdowns of 1973-74 and 2000-02. Given the relatively unique nature of the current bull, he says, “like maritime explorers of old who have entered rarely sailed waters, it might be wise to ignore prior observations and proceed with caution by relying on frequent soundings for safe passage.”