An article in Chief Investment Officer from last December predicts that the “slumping dollar can expect to drop some more—a lot more, actually.”
The article cites comments from a Citigroup report saying that “paradoxically, the chief culprit is the good news on the coronavirus vaccine front” which elevates recovery hopes around the world. Such high hopes, however, leave overseas investors less desperate to “seek refuge in U.S. assets, which always boosts the greenback.”
In the report, the analysts wrote, “Vaccine distribution, we believe, will check off all of our bear market signposts, allowing the dollar to follow a similar path to that it experienced from the early to mid-2000s.” They predict that the Australian dollar and the Norwegian krone will be winners because both countries are commodity exporters.
The article also notes that Goldman Sachs recommends shorting the U.S. dollar in favor of Australian and Canadian currencies, both oil-heavy economies: “This in keeping with the firm’s earlier warning that the dollar is in danger of losing its status as the globes reserve currency.” It adds that a Goldman study concluded that the flood of dollars resulting from the Fed’s stimulus efforts could trigger inflation down the road and further undermine the greenback.