Sonders: Secular Bull Rolling On, But Don't Get Greedy

Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders thinks the US is still well positioned compared to the rest of the world, but she also thinks it’s not a time for wild bullishness.

“I remain a secular bull on the US stock market, which is also reflected in Windhaven’s positioning (the highest rankings among asset classes in the Windhaven model include US equities and US/global real estate),” writes Sonders, who is now also Chair of the Investment Committee at Schwab’s Windhaven Investment, in commentary on Schwab’s site. “But bull markets can and should take breathers. We are not suggesting running for the hills; just suggesting that getting overly greedy doesn’t make sense in today’s environment.”

She says one theme she sees developing is “global divergences” when it comes to economic traction, inflation/deflation risks, and central bank policies. “It points to the rising benefits of global diversification and a greater focus on more tactically-oriented asset allocation,” she says. “It also shows the dominance of the US economic position globally (and why the Fed is ahead of most other global central banks in moving toward tighter monetary policy).”

Sonders looks at numerous pros and cons in the current market. Her bottom line: “Interest rates and seasonal tendencies are taking some attention away from the stronger economy and pose short-term risks for the stock market. Another pullback would be welcome from a sentiment perspective and would not dent our longer-term optimism that we are in a secular bull market that still has room to run. But just as fear has been the strongest emotion keeping many investors out of this bull market, greed is an emotion to rein in as well.”