Sonders Says Recession Risk is Low

Although there are those that believe the U.S. is on the brink of recession, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab’s chief investment strategist, says the risk is low. This according to CNBC’s report on her commentary at the Morningstar ETF Conference in Chicago earlier this month.

While Sonders says there are no clear buy signals at present, the market “could continue to grind higher, but not without drama. An ongoing secular bull market is still a decent bet.” While admitting that our economy is in turmoil, she differentiates between an economic recession and an earnings recession—what we’re facing now—which was caused by a strong dollar and a drop in oil prices. These problems, she argues, have passed. While the presidential election adds to the tumult, she says, “trying to forecast short-term market action around this election is a fool’s game.”

According to Sonders, the Fed’s slow motion action on rates means “they are not chasing on overheated economy.” However, there’s still a chance for a rate hike in 2016 (albeit slowly). Policymakers, she says, are stuck in a “loop” because when they raise rates the dollar tightens and the Fed in turn “backs away because the market has already done its job.” She says, “I’m not sure we’ll get out of this [loop] anytime soon.”