Sonders: Long Term Prognosis Still Bullish

Though some have grown concerned that the stock market is overheated, top strategist Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab thinks the long term picture remains good.

“The growing cries that we’ve reached sentiment or valuation extreme worthy of past tops, or a bubble at its bursting point, seems a bit premature; even with the Dow hitting 16,000 and the S&P 500 hitting 1800,” Sonders writes on She looks at nine different indicators of market tops, each of which was in effect when the last two bull markets peaked. Today, only one of the nine is flashing a warning signal — rising real interest rates. And Sonders offers some reasons why that may not even be much of a warning.

Sonders also talks about why recent pickups to stock fund flows aren’t a big concern, and why valuations show that stocks should have more room to run. She does say that short term frothiness could lead to a correction, especially if the Federal Reserve starts tapering, but she sees that as being short term. And, while she thinks we’re in the middle of a secular bull, Sonders would welcome a short term pullback. “My bottom line is that I continue to hope for a pullback here in the near-term to alleviate some of the frothiness that’s crept in and keep the bull market going,” she says. “But I continue to fear a melt-up. Why ‘fear’? As good as they feel while they’re happening, they don’t end well.”