Shiller Talks Valuations, Counters Siegel

Yale Economist Robert Shiller says the market looks overpriced, but not so much so that you should avoid stocks.

“I’m not really saying don’t invest in stocks,” Shiller tells CNBC’s Futures Now. “[But] don’t expect miracles. He says the market’s valuation looks “high by historical standards, but it’s not super-high. I’d say it’s suggesting — based on historical evidence — real returns of something like 3 percent a year for the next decade.”

Shiller also counters Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel, who recently criticized the use of the 10-year cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio — Shiller’s preferred valuation metric. “He’s a smart guy, he makes good points, Shiller says. “He tends to be a little bullish, I think. But the measure that he uses is going quite far from traditional price-to-[earnings ratios]. He is proposing a national income and product account definition of earnings, rather than earnings that correspond to the stocks in the S&P 500. And even if you take that, suppose we accept that, then the market is still not low-priced!”