In an interview, Charlie Bobrinskoy of Ariel Investments told CNBC that while the market seemed to show more confidence that a recession is looming, he doesn’t believe the chance of a recession is “anywhere near 100%.” But if the market is right, and a recession happens, Bobrinskoy acknowledged that some of the stocks he himself owns, such as consumer discretionary names, financials, and banks, will struggle, while certain growth stocks could outperform.
When asked if there were any value stocks inside a growth basket that might do well, Bobrinskoy highlighted Mohawk Carpets, trading at 8x earnings and Mosaic, trading at 4x earnings, though he did point out that there would be short-term headwinds to deal with. Ariel Investments, he said in the interview, tries to look past those headwinds to the long-term, but right now the market is “extremely focused” on the short-term.
Looking at automakers, Tesla had a disappointing second-quarter deliveries report, which resulted in JPMorgan cutting its earnings estimate, and Ford announced that its second quarter sales increased by a slight 1.8%. Meanwhile, Stellantis could cut their production by over 200,000 vehicles in 2022, owing to shipping shortages around the world. Auto stocks are suffering in general, as consumers wait for EVs, which have had protracted delivery dates due to supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical tensions. Many automakers hit 52-week lows in July—Ford, GM, Stellantis, and Honda among them.
In the automaker space, Bobrinskoy was enthusiastic about BorgWarner, telling CNBC that the current shortages will eventually be fixed, as will chip issues, and the industry will come back to producing 17 million cars every year as demand has not waned.