Presidential Election Years Not Good for Stocks, Writes Hulbert

Mark Hulbert debunks the misperception that a presidential election year is good for stocks. “During fourth years [of a presidential term] the stock market tends to be a below-average performer” and “this is especially the case for the final years of two-term presidents.” He notes that there is insufficient data to produce statistically robust results for the latter point, but observes that the “second-half strength” of the market during a president’s four-year term “”is almost entirely concentrated in the third years of the four-year cycle.” He concludes: “The lesson of the data is just that, if the market [produces an impressive return], it won’t be be caused by this coming year being the fourth of President Obama’s second term.”


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