In a recent interview with Barron’s sister-publication Financial News, veteran investor Mark Mobius said, “I don’t see a recession risk,” explaining, “the simple reason is that with interest rates going down and down, it will be much easier for people to raise capital. There is a lot of money sloshing around the world looking for a home.”
Mobius suggested there might be a “slowdown” due to trade tensions but added that a recession in Europe is also unlikely.
The article cites results from Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s global fund manager survey (of 175 participants managing a total of $507 billion) showing that 31% of respondents expect a global recession next year—down from 38% in September.
According to Mobius, President Trump will be “eagle-eyed” on the US economy ahead of the 2020 election and could “ease up on China rhetoric or invest more in infrastructure. He can do a lot that could maintain the U.S. economy.” Mobius predicts that Trump will be re-elected, but in the face of opposition including impeachment proceedings, keeping the economy booming will be a key factor.
Mobius also expects the Fed to continue lowering interest rates: “You can’t have a situation where Europe moves into negative rates, China lowers its rates, Japan continues what they are doing, and the U.S. does nothing.” He adds that the Fed should also examine exchange rates, since an increasingly strong dollar will deepen the trade “bounce”, which will hurt the U.S. economy.