Hulbert: High Valuations Could Trigger a Bear Market

Citing the rapid stock market decline that occurred in March 2000, financial analyst and journalist Mark Hulbert says investors should “expect some incredible fireworks when this incredible bull market finally comes to an end.” This according to a recent MarketWatch article.

Hulbert explains that the market is overvalued “according to almost any standard valuation measure, and it’s at such times that, to use the famous phrase from hedge fund manager Doug Kass, risk happens fast.”

The article provides the following chart to illustrate that the market is more stretched now than it was at between 86% and 100% of the three dozen bull market tops since 1900 (data from Ned Davis Research):

market val

Hulbert clarifies that he is not predicting a bear market is imminent, but says investors should be mindful of the fact that valuation matters. “When stocks are overvalued as they are today,” he concludes, “almost anything can become a bear market trigger. And sometimes it takes nothing at all.”