Gross Doubts 2% Growth Rate

Billionaire Bill Gross says that the 10-year Treasury yield moving  above 2.6%  is a more important event than the Dow hitting the 20,000 milestone, according to a recent Investment News article.

The manager of the $1.8 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund argues that a rise to above 2.6% would “mark an end to the three-decade bond bull market,” and that “it is the key to interest rate levels and perhaps stock price levels in 2017.”

While the nation has high hopes that the new administration will deliver GDP growth to the tune of 3%, the article says Gross considers this unlikely due to an “aging population, technological advancement and the retreat of globalization.” Instead, he argues that a “2% longer term standard is likely in place that will stunt corporate profit growth and slow down risk asset appreciation.”

Gross says “Trump’s policies may grant a temporary acceleration over the next few years,” but characterizes the current slower pace of growth as the “new normal.”