In his latest Forbes column, Ken Fisher says that he thinks stocks will continue to produce above average returns in 2010, though the gains won’t be as great as they’ve been in 2009.
Fisher says the huge ’09 rebound “was a textbook case of how markets are supposed to react to big bear markets and recessions”, with a V-type recovery occurring. “I’m betting 2010 will work out the way markets usually do in the second year after a big bear market,” he says, “with returns not as high as 2009’s but well above average.”
Fisher also talks about the cycles the stock market has gone through, and how the market seems to rebound strongly when pessimism is high. “This should be a great time to own stocks,” he thus says. “But we forget these long-term lessons and think about the recent past. And so now the investing public sees a future of dismal returns, just as it did in the mid-1970s and early 1980s,” shortly before a long bull market started.