With central banks around the globe making an array of moves to weaken or strengthen their currencies, talk of currency wars has risen. Kenneth Fisher says not to buy it.
“This isn’t the 1930s,” Fisher writes for the UK’s Interactive Investor. “Then, the death of the 1920s gold standard helped wreck trade as exchange rates went wild. But America’s 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariff did much more harm by prompting retaliatory barriers globally. Trade war, not currency war. Today, trade is far freer and growing. If some countries cut rates so they can grow faster, that doesn’t hurt everyone else. Maybe it helps! Wouldn’t you want Britain’s export markets to grow faster so they can buy more from you?”
Fisher says currency wars are simply examples of nations trying to address their own domestic problems — not fight each other. He explains how the reality of monetary moves is often far less black and white than many assume, with unwanted repercussions, making it difficult for a country to wage a currency war even if it wanted to.
“Folks fearing currency wars today fear ordinary monetary moves,” Fisher says. “When folks fear normal, that’s bullish – soon they’ll realise they were wrong and bid up stocks.” He offers a couple of picks he’s high on, including UnitedHealth Group.