Heading into 2014, Nuveen’s Bob Doll sees growth strengthening and a good year — though not as good as 2013 — for stocks.
Doll writes for Barrons that he expects the US economy to grow at a 3% clip in 2014, with growth strengthening thanks to a “litany of hopeful signs includes the housing recovery, falling oil prices, acceptable job growth, easing lending standards, low inflation, all-time high net worth, rising capital expenditures, less fiscal drag, and improving non-U.S. growth.” He thinks it’s likely that stock market gains will rely on earnings growth after the multiple expansion we’ve seen in the past year, and he thinks “high single digit or low double-digit percentage gains [for stocks] are not unreasonable” to expect, though he adds that a correction driven by technicals is likely sometime during the year. “We would use pullbacks as buying opportunities as most fundamentals continue to improve,” he says.
Doll also expects cyclical stocks to outperform defensive plays, the dollar to strengthen, and gold to fall. And he thinks the bond bear bear market will continue. One interesting stock-picking note: Doll said he prefers using dividend growth and free cash flow yield to straight dividend yield.