Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2017

Nuveen Asset Management’s Bob Doll shared his ten predictions for the coming year in Business Wire:

Predictions for 2017

  1. U.S. and global economic growth improves modestly and dollar strengthens (and reaches parity with the Euro);
  2. Unemployment drops to its lowest level in 17 years, and wages increase at the fastest pace since the Great Recession;
  3. Treasury yields move higher (for a third consecutive year) for the first time in 26 years, and Fed raises rates twice;
  4. Stocks hit their 2017 highs in the first half of the year as earnings rise but price/earnings multiples fall;
  5. For the first time in 20 years, stocks outperform bonds for the sixth year in a row. Volatility rises, however.
  6. Small-cap and value stocks, and cyclical sectors beat large-caps, defense and growth.
  7. Financials, health care and information technology sectors outperform energy, utilities and materials;
  8. Active managers’ performance improves as more funds flow into equities;
  9. As pro-domestic policies are pursued globally, nationalistic and protectionist trends rise;
  10. Initial optimism about the Trump agenda fades due to a slow legislative process.

Doll says that he hit the mark on 8.5 of his 10 predictions for 2016 and that, looking forward from an investor’s viewpoint, a “difficult investing environment requires selectivity.” When evaluating companies, Doll cites free cash flow, ability to generate unit growth, and above-average secular growth as key metrics.