Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott says he thinks the expiration of the Bush Administration tax cuts at the end of this year will be the catalyst for another recession, and that in a year or two there will be “wonderful buying opportunities”.
“I see all sorts of wonderful buying opportunities in the coming 12 to 24 months,” Arnott tells BusinessWeek. “They’re not here now. You buy assets when they’re cheap, when investors are frightened. The growth side of the market is priced for a very benign environment. The deep value side is saying: ‘Whoa, things could still go haywire.’ I’d much rather buy stocks priced as if things could go haywire than stocks priced as if everything is fine.”
Arnott says sectors priced to reflect fears of another round of the financial crisis, like utilities, consumer discretionary stocks, industrials, and financials, should perform well. He also likes emerging markets like Malaysia, Russia, and Turkey, and is finding long-term inflation-linked bonds “very interesting”.
Arnott also says most of his money is “away from stocks right now”, but he seems intrigued by one very out of favor play: BP, which continues to deal with the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.