The 30-Year Downtrend in Interest Rates Could Be Over

A recent article in MarketWatch outlines comments by industry experts regarding the 10-year Treasury’s recent inching up above the 30-year downtrend line:

  • Mark Arbeter, CMT, of Arbeter Investments LLC says that, from a “very long-term perspective, yields appear to be tracing out a massive bottom,” adding that while the yield rise could lead to more volatility and is most likely a warning of a bear market down the road, “I do not think that we have seen the highs for this bull market yet.”
  • Frank Fantozzi of Planned Financial Services thinks that yields will trend higher through 2019, but “not that much higher,” and suggests that a “new norm” of around 4 percent would not be unrealistic going forward. Such a level, he argues, might attract additional money to the bond market, which would lead to a “bumpier” ride for stocks.
  • Brad Pettiford, spokesman for United Wholesale Mortgage, says, “It’s a bit disconcerting because we just broke through the 30-year trend line, but we’re not concerned with rates skyrocketing.” He believes that yields returning to the range of between 5 percent and 7 percent “shouldn’t be cause for too much concern.”
  • Frank Cappelleri, CFA, CMT and executive director of institutional equities at Instinet LLC, argues that, while the apparent yield breakout is significant, over the long term it isn’t as scary as some may believe. “It certainly could be different this time,” he says, “but it would be surprising if the yield continues along at this torrid pace.”